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Texas Polls Show Dem Race Tightening

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Remember, Hill needs to win both Texas and Ohio big if she wants to stay in it, but at least one poll out recently shows Obama in the lead.

First, from American Research Group, Obama 48%, Hillary 42%

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.

Check out that Latino spread. Hillary’s dominance has evaporated, but again…this is just one poll.

Rasmussen shows a very different story, Hillary 54%, Obama 38%…

However, just 68% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in Texas say they have made up their mind and are certain about their vote. Ten percent (10%) remain undecided, 5% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and 16% say they might change their mind.

Overall, 78% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 67% say the same about Obama. Among voters who are currently undecided, 59% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 48% offer a positive assessment of Obama.

Eighty-two percent (82%) believe Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Seventy-one percent (71%) believe Obama would have a chance to win in November. Among those who are undecided, 53% believe Clinton would have a chance to defeat the Republicans and 50% say the same about Obama.

Okay, one more from IVR, which I’ve never heard of…Hillary 49%, Obama 41%…

• Clinton also enjoys a slight edge in the image ratings. Three-quarters (75%) of Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of her (48% strongly favorable), and 23% unfavorable; while 71% have a favorable image of Obama (41% strongly favorable), and 24% unfavorable.

Those who plan on voting early are tilting towards Obama (46% to 42%) while Clinton leads 51% to 40% among voters who are waiting until Election Day to cast their vote.

Clinton’s coalition is comprised of Hispanics, women, and strong Democrats, while Obama’s support is coming primarily from African Americans, independents, men, and higher income households.

I’ve heard rumblings that Texas’ black population is registering to vote at a record clip, so they could really help decide how this one swings. Traditionally they’ve been disenfranchised by the schedule since they vote so late in the primary season and their votes don’t really matter in the national election. This could be one time where they can really make a difference, and that idea shouldn’t be discounted.