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It Couldn’t Be Tighter In Texas And Ohio

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From Pollster come the trends.

First, Texas…

To me, this shows the “It’s 3 a.m.” ad is working, even though others say it has little effect on undecideds. Personally, I do think the Texas contest favors Obama because of the popular vote/caucus mix, and I think that’s why he’s going to be in Texas tomorrow night.

Now, Ohio…

It’d be a shame if the Canada/NAFTA story hurt Obama in Ohio, but that’s politics. His campaign should have come out sooner with the whole story because the facts were on his side.

But I’ll note again that nobody thought he could win either of these states a few weeks ago, and he’s on the verge of taking Texas. So while it may seem tight, and while it may seem that Hillary can claim a miraculous turnaround tomorrow, don’t buy the spin. There has been no turnaround. She has always been ahead in both states and Obama has closed both gaps in a very short time.

Also, the delegate math isn’t something that will change. Every objective observer who runs the numbers, without exception, says that Hillary has to win big in both Texas and Ohio to start making up ground. Not only that, she’ll have to start winning big in every single state from here on out and even then she STILL won’t be able to catch up. So barring any crazy news about Obama, that doesn’t seem likely to happen.

From all indications, though, it seems like she’s going to stick with this to the bitter end and I honestly don’t see the sense in it. It’s obviously her right to try, but if she’s not going to end up with more delegates than Obama by convention time and instead try to win via the superdelegates, is it worth the effort if the end result is very likely a party split in two?

I welcome your thoughts.