I’m looking at the county-by-county numbers in Texas at CNN and I think Clinton could very well win this. Travis County, home to Austin and its energized youthful voters, has almost 2/3 of the vote in and Obama has just 63% of the vote. I thought Obama could get as much as 75% of Travis County. Meanwhile, Clinton is getting 70%+ of the vote along the border and is poised to win every county in West Texas and the Panhandle. It’ll come down to Harris, Dallas, Denton, Collin and Tarrant Counties and whether there are enough outstanding Obama votes in these major urban areas to counteract Clinton’s rural popularity.

I said earlier today to watch San Antonio which makes up most of Bexar County. Obama must have thought the same as he’s here tonight for the victory speech which may never come. Right now with half of the vote in, Clinton is comfortably ahead by 13 points. My feeling was that if Obama could win or place even in San Antonio, he could win the state. If he did poorly here, I thought that would indicate a general weakness throughout state. He’s not doing well enough.

Of course, with Texas’ screwy system of delegate apportionment, Obama will likely come out ahead in the delegate count. We’ll all find out tomorrow as this thing will go on pretty late.

Home Politics Texas Numbers Looking Good for Clinton