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PA Polls: Hillary Loses Ground, Obama Leads


First, Quinnipiac shows Hillary losing ground, but Obama not gaining any:

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a 50 – 41 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters […] This compares to a 53 – 41 percent lead in a March 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.

The primary vote between Obama and Clinton splits sharply along racial lines, with her advantage coming from stronger support in every contest from white voters. For example, Clinton leads 59 – 34 percent among white Pennsylvania likely primary voters, while Obama leads 73 – 11 percent among black Democrats.

And then from Public Policy Polling (pdf), comes the shocker…

Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama has taken the lead over Hillary Clinton 45-43 in Pennsylvania, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.

It’s a remarkable turn around from PPP’s last Pennsylvania poll, conducted two and a half weeks ago, that showed Clinton with a 26 point lead in the state. That poll was released at the height of the Jeremiah Wright controversy and the day before Obama’s major speech on race in Philadelphia. Obama has been trending upward in national polling and in many state level polls since then and this survey reflects that pattern.

“In the last few weeks there has been increasing attention given to the fact that a continuing divisive Democratic nomination fight could hurt the party’s chances of defeating John McCain this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

“The major movement in Obama’s direction in Pennsylvania could be an indication that Democrats in that state think it’s time to wrap it up.”
Obama is narrowing the gap with white voters, trailing just 49-38, while maintaining his customary significant advantage with black voters. He leads that group 75-17.

Obama also leads among all age groups except senior citizens, with whom Clinton has a 50-34 advantage. The poll shows the standard gender gap with Obama leading by 15 points among men while trailing by 10 points with women.

And for those who doubt this poll…

Public Policy Polling had the most accurate numbers of any company in the country for the Democratic primaries in South Carolina and Wisconsin, as well as the closest numbers for any organization that polled the contests in both Texas and Ohio.

Does that mean these numbers are the most accurate? Of course not. But to dismiss them out of hand isn’t valid either.