Polls suggest that the take from Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana will basically result in a net tie in pledged delegates between the two candidates for those three states, so that leaves only the superdelegates to decide this thing.
Real Clear Politics does not have poll numbers for the remaining states, but Obama has a 5.8 percentage point lead over Clinton in RCPâ€™s average of national polls. Even if we were to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt and split those remaining contests 50/50, Obama comes out with 1,922 and 1,787 for Clinton.
These calculations still leave Barack Obama more than 100 delegates short of the total needed for the nomination. So letâ€™s go to the superdelegates.
At present, 315 superdelegates are still up for grabs. Using our Delegate Calculator, it becomes clear that Obama would need to win just 33%, or 104, of the remaining 315 superdelegates to get over the top.
To be sure, Clinton will not split the remaining contests with Obama 50/50, so you can bet that he’ll need an even smaller percentage of the superdelegates to win…maybe even less than 30%.
More as it develops…