That 20 point ARG poll today? Well, it was obviously a shocker, but what’s more telling is the story when the polls are aggregated…

Here’s more from Mark Blumenthal explaining the above graphic…

[…] the black trend line continues to show Clinton’s margin declining because the regression model that generates it gives greater weight to the larger number of polls conducted earlier showing a decline. The new ARG survey is so different from other polls that, with a more sensitive estimator, the line would move quite a bit in its direction, producing an upward spike. Our more conservative estimator is pulled up by ARG, but it is designed to resist the influence of single poll that falls far from the rest. If other new polls are consistent with ARG, then the trend estimator will move sharply in that direction. But if new results look like other recent polls, then the trend will remain about where it is.

By the way a new Susquehanna poll shows Clinton 40, Obama 37, so there’s that.

Long story short, the race seems to be getting tighter, but it’ll be nice to end this speculation next week.

Home Politics Polls Point To Tight Pennsylvania Contest?


  1. I do believe the blip will even out in favor of Obama. He really did not insult small town voters, just tried to explain why they feel frustrated. I am an urban voter and I have confidence in the intelligence of Pennsylvania voters; they will not be misled by Ms. Clinton’s bull… Obama was instrumental in raising the minimum wage when he was in the state senate in Illinois. Bill Clinton brought us NAFTA, an expanded prison system, and a new level of dishonesty when speaking to Americans. Now, Hillary is “offended” in the name of the 2nd amendment, when gun control has been a Clinton issue until this weekend. Maybe the sniper fire in Bosnia made her want to bear arms, maybe just blind ambition brought the change. In any case, Obama will be better for the country.

  2. I think ARG was an outlier, but the Susquehanna poll doesn’t tell us anything. It was conducted 04/06-04/10 and falls in line with other polls during that period (it was just released later).


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