Clinton Can’t Catch Up In Delegates OR Popular Vote
Here’s some more fuel for the “Hillary can’t win” fire from Bloomberg:
April 21 (Bloomberg) — To overtake Barack Obama in the nationwide popular vote, Hillary Clinton needs a bigger win in tomorrow’s Pennsylvania primary than she has had in any major contest so far. And that’s just for starters.
After more than 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, Obama, the Illinois senator, leads Clinton by more than 800,000 votes. Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow — a landslide few experts expect — she would still have a hard time catching him.
Clinton needs “blowout numbers,” says Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn’t affiliated with either campaign. “The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow.”
Even if she wins in a blowout of more than 20% she’d have a hard time catching him. And here’s more cold, hard math…
To earn that split decision, though, Clinton would need a 25-point victory in Pennsylvania, plus 20-point wins in later contests in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Even that scenario assumes Clinton, 60, would break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon — a prospect that’s not at all certain.
Now, she might be able to wrestle ties out of Indiana, South Dakota and Montana, but not Oregon and North Carolina. Again, the math doesn’t add up.
So, she simply can’t catch up, but the fact remains that Barack won’t be able to win without superdelegates, so unless a ton break his way after a win in North Carolina, this thing is set to go all the way to the convention.
More as it develops…