Less than 24 hours before the polls open in PA and the Clinton camp has to be encouraged by these polls, but not overjoyed. Because while these numbers show movement her way, there are other numbers to suggest Obama’s gaining.
First, Suffolk University shows Hill leading by 10, 52/42. This is their first poll of the season, and they tackle Bosnia and BitterGate:
Democrats were mostly forgiving of the recent controversies surrounding Clinton and Obama. Forty-two percent indicated that Clintonâ€™s Bosnia comment was just a mistake, while 25 percent said she exaggerated, and 21 percent said she outright lied. Nor did Obamaâ€™s bitterness comment have traction with likely voters. Thirty-two percent agreed that his comment showed he is out of touch with rural Pennsylvania voters, while 56 percent disagreed.
Next, Zogby shows a 6 points spread, 48/42, with her gaining big the over the last day. Repeat of New Hampshire?
big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a one-day anomalyâ€”undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are breaking Clinton’s way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%
Meanwhile, Quinnipiac’s numbers remain pretty much the same with Hill gaining one and leading 51/44…
“Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them. An extraordinary turnout effort by Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign could snatch this victory from Sen. Hillary Clinton, but that does not appear likely,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Sen. Obama got off message after his ‘bitter’ remarks and never regained his momentum, giving Sen. Clinton the opening to fight another day in Indiana and North Carolina. She wins in Western Pennsylvania; he wins in the East. She gets Catholics, white women and blue-collar labor vote. He captures men, blacks and college grads – and enough delegates to keep his edge in the number that counts most.”
Long story short, it’s all about GOTV now.
More on Obama soon.