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Polls: Obama Gains/Leads In Pennsylvania

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Let’s get right into it with Strategic Vision, who had Hillary leading 49/40, but now shows Hill with a 7 point lead 48/41.

Next, SurveyUSA shows Obama gaining 4 and Hill losing 4 for a Clinton/Obama spread of 50/44 contest. Here’s why…

A large shift of support occurred in the Philadelphia area and other parts of Southeast Pennsylvania, which includes most of the state’s African-American population. The poll found that Obama finished strongly, ahead of Clinton by 14 points within that demographic. Among liberals, Obama began 18 points behind Clinton but finished 11 points ahead of Clinton. Among those who have not graduated from college, Clinton led by 28 points last week, but by 15 points Monday.

Among voters under age 50, Clinton had led by 8 points last week and trailed by 8 Monday.

Here’s what has not changed: Among women, Clinton has led by 30, 28, 28, 22, and 23 points in five polls. Among voters 50 and older, Clinton has led by 26, 22, 24, 20, and 20 points in the polls.

Last, we have Public Policy Polling who has Obama leading 49/46 (pdf):

This is the fourth week in a row PPP has shown the race within three points. Obama had a three point edge last week, Clinton had the three point advantage two weeks ago, and Obama was up two three weeks ago.

“With such a close race, the winner of the Pennsylvania primary is going to come down to turnout,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama leads 58-32 in the metro Philadelphia area. If there is huge turnout there he has a chance.”

When people were initially asked who they supported in the poll Obama showed a 47-43 advantage. Undecided respondents were asked if they were leaning toward one of the candidates and the 49-46 lead comes with those factored in.

And away we go…