Nationally he’s doing much better than in Pennsylvania, and it looks like his debate dip is over. I think the test now is to see if he can get to 15.
Clinton is expected to prevail in Pennsylvania, according to the pre-election polls, but the pundits are focusing speculation on the size of the margin. A big win could give her campaign a boost and make a comeback seem more possible. A close win would probably not alter the dynamics of the race, and make her campaign’s arguments that she can overcome Obama’s delegate lead less persuasive.
An Obama win could lead to heavy pressure from Democratic Party leaders for Clinton to drop out of the race. Gallup Poll Daily tracking data will begin to show any national impact of the Pennsylvania results on Thursday, since tonight’s polling will involve a mixture of interviewing conducted before and after the winner of that contest is known.
If he wins PA, it’s over. If she wins PA by a very narrow margin, it should be over. If she wins PA by double digits, it’s going all the way to the convention.
More as it develops…