Gallup: Obama Leads By 1, Still Statistically Tied
For the 3rd day in a row, they’re locked up.
Of note, her post-PA momentum did not give her any sort of national lead, which suggests that there’s a bit of a ceiling in these numbers. Obama can’t crack 51% and Hillary can’t really crack 47%.
The race has been stable at a virtual dead heat in each of the last four Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports. This follows Clinton’s victory in the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic primary — an event which has helped Clinton challenge what had been a growing sense of inevitability around Obama winning the nomination.
Also, the two have been roughly tied in each individual day of polling included in today’s three-day rolling average. Barring any political firestorms along the lines of the recent Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Kosovo controversies, the race could very well remain closely contested through at least the May 6 Indiana and North Carolina primaries.
Obama won’t do it, but if he wanted to put the lock on this thing he’d start talking openly about the math, about how she can’t catch up and about how she’s hurting the party by extending this contest. I think it’s to his credit he’s taking the high road, but Hillary and company will continue to tear into him at every opportunity and he risks his own chances this Fall by staying silent. Because remember, if he loses nobody is going to blame Hillary for that. Sure, some will, but Obama will own the loss fair and square and it’ll be Hillary in 2012…and she’ll be a shoo-in.
More as it devolves…