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Zogby: Obama Up Big In North Carolina, Tied In Indiana

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Zogby was sketchy earlier in the season, but he was nearly dead on in Pennsylvania, so these numbers might tell a similar story.

In North Carolina, he leads 50 to 34, with 8 saying they’ll vote for somebody else (my guess is it’ll be John Edwards) and 8 remaining undecided.

Here’s more detail…

Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina—47% to 37% – but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well—winning 44% support to Clinton’s 37% backing.

Is it likely that those 8% who will be voting for somebody else will switch to Obama or Clinton? Maybe 2%, but my guess is that number will remain steady because it’s ultimately a vote for native son and state pride.

In Indiana, it’s tied up 42 to 42, and again we have 7% saying they’re going to vote for somebody else and 9% undecided. This is where the polling gets dangerous, because there’s no way that 7% are going to vote for somebody else in Indiana. Maybe 2% tops. So I’m looking at this as 14% undecided, and they’ve been traditionally breaking for Hillary.

More details…

The demographic breakdowns in Indiana mirror what we have seen in earlier voting states, with Obama leading among younger voters and Clinton leading among older voters. A key middle-age demographic—those age 35 to 54—now favors Obama by a 48% to 41% margin in Indiana, but this demo turned out to be a key battleground in Pennsylvania, which has a somewhat similar population make-up.

Obama leads in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by Obama’s hometown Chicago media market. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women.

After getting clobbered among Catholics in Pennsylvania nearly two weeks ago, Obama wins 41% support from Indiana Catholics, compared to 40% who support Clinton. Conversely, Clinton leads among Protestants by six points after having lost among them in Pennsylvania.

Those numbers seem a little more favorable for Barack, but there’s still a ton of wiggle room there.

More as it develops…