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Obama Adds Guam Superdelegate, Hillary Loses One

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Jaime Paulino ran as an Obama supporter, so this isn’t a surprise, but any superdelegate pickup that happens at the same time Hillary loses one is significant.

And why did she lose one?

The territory also has five superdelegates. Voters picked two, electing uncommitted Pilar Lujan party chairman and Jaime Paulino vice chairman. Paulino ran as an Obama supporter. One other superdelegate endorsed Clinton earlier.

The vote for party chairman and vice chairman also added a superdelegate for Obama and subtracted one for Clinton because the outgoing vice chair had endorsed her.

Obama now has 1,490 pledged delegates and Clinton has 1,338. Including superdelegates, Obama leads 1,742-1,607, according to The Associated Press. A total of 2,025 is needed to win the nomination.

Two things have happened here. First, Obama’s super delegate deficit when compared to Hillary’s total is now just 17. Second, post-Pennsylvania, Obama has 20 pickups to Clinton’s 12.

So what does this mean for Hillary? Well, there are roughly 300 superdelegates left and 400 pledged delegates left. How many does she need to win? Well, this latest superdelegate add puts him roughly 282 delegates (pledged or super) away from the nomination. So she needs to win 418. That’s about 60% of the remaining delegates. Seems doable, right?

Well remember, she has to win 60% of the remaining pledged AND super delegates, it’s going to be nearly impossible to pickup the rest. So if swap delegates, as they have been doing, for those remaining 400 or so pledged deleagates, it leaves him needing 82 and her needing 218…of the remaining supers. That means she would need 73% of the supers.

That would mean she’s going to take the supers nearly 4 to 1 from Obama when she’s nearly 2 to 1 behind in pickups after she was supposed to have this huge momentum after her massive turnaround win in Pennsylvania? Unlikely.

Total superdelegate pickups after the jump…

Obama superdelegate pickups:
Jaime Paulino (Guam), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – May 4, 2008
Parris Glendening (MD), Governor – May 3, 2008
Inez Tenenbaum (SC), DNC – May 3, 2008
Brian Colón (TX), DNC – May 3, 2008
Paul G. Kirk, Jr. (MA), DNC – May 2, 2008
John Patrick (TX), DNC – May 1, 2008
Barbara Flynn Currie (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Todd Stroger (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Richard M. Daley (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008
Bruce Braley (IA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Lois Capps (CA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Baron Hill (IN), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Ben Chandler (KY), Representative – Apr 29, 2008
Richard Machacek (IA), DNC – Apr 29, 2008
Jeff Bingaman (NM), Senator – Apr 28, 2008
Charlene Fernandez (AZ), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 26, 2008
David Wu (OR), Representative – Apr 24, 2008
Audra Ostergard (NE), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 23, 2008
Brad Henry (OK), Governor – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate pickups:
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (MD), Lt. Governor – May 3, 2008
Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr. (TX), DNC – May 2, 2008
Andrew Cuomo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Thomas DiNapoli (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
C. Virginia Field (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Carmen Arroyo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
John Olsen (CT), DNC – May 1, 2008
Luisette Cabanas (PR), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – Apr 30, 2008
William George (PA), DNC – Apr 30, 2008
Ike Skelton (MO), Representative, Apr 29, 2008
Mike Easley (NC), Governor – Apr 28, 2008
Kathy Sullivan (NH), Add-On – Apr 26, 2008
John Tanner (TN), Representative – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate losses:
Arlene P. Bordallo (Guam), DNC & Former Territory Vice Chair- May 4, 2008