He leads by 16 points among those who’ve already voted, which is apparently already 25% of the voting base. We talked yesterday about how 8% had already voted by Friday, so that number seems to have really ramped up since the information I posted about was fresh.
In any event, here are the details…
The contest is stable among men, where Obama leads by 11. The contest is stable among women, where the two remain tied.
In Charlotte and Western NC, there is the slightest momentum for Clinton. In the Research Triangle, in Southern NC and in Coastal NC, there is slight offsetting momentum to Obama. The net is a wash.
If Obama wins, it will be entirely from [his 16-point advantage of] the 19% of voters who describe themselves as Liberal. Clinton leads by 9 among Conservatives and leads by 8 among Moderates.