Zogby: Obama Opens Up 14 Point Lead In North Carolina
This is starting to remind me of New Hampshire, but at least his numbers add up to 100% today.
Yesterday he had the race at:
Obama – 48%
Clinton – 40%
Other – 5%
Not Sure – 8%
Total – 101%
Obama – 51%
Clinton – 37%
Other – 4%
Not Sure – 8%
Total – 100%
Now, the big caveat here is that’s a pretty big 12% still floating out there basically undecided, so this is why I’m taking Zogby with a grain of salt once again. But he has been fairly accurate after Super Tuesday, so take that for what it’s worth.
In North Carolina, Obama wins 79% support among African Americans, compared with 11% for Clinton, the junior senator from New York. But while Clinton wins among whites, 52% to 37%, Obamaâ€™s advantage among African Americans more than counteracts her advantage among those white voters. The African American vote in the North Carolina primary is expected to be about 32%.
Early voting in North Carolina began April 17th, and Obama has done well among the 30 percent in the survey who said they had already cast ballots. Among those voters, he leads Clinton by a 57% to 34% margin. Many of those ballots may have been cast before last weekâ€™s controversy over Obamaâ€™s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Geographically, Obama made inroads into what had been Clinton territory in western and eastern North Carolina, while Clinton closed to within three points in Charlotte. In the southeast corner of the state, Clinton held a 12 point lead.
Interestingly enough, another website had a prediction that Obama would win by 17% given demographic breakdowns and how he has performed in similar states surrounding North Carolina.
Could they be seeing something that other pollsters aren’t?