Yesterday it was Obama/Clinton, 44/42. Today it’s Obama/Clinton, 45/43.
This is a tight one, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hillary pulls out the victory tonight given that this poll still shows 12% undecided.
The overall Obama advantage in Indianaâ€”though statistically insignificantâ€”comes after another strong day of polling Monday. The one-day total, which comprises about half of the two-day tracking poll sample, saw Obama winning 47% support to Clintonâ€™s 41%. Mondayâ€™s polling results are combined with Sundayâ€™s numbers to produce the two-day tracking poll.
Among Indiana Catholics, Obama holds a three-point lead, while Clinton holds a similarly small edge among Protestants.
Clinton leads among white voters, 48% to 40%, with 12% left unsure or supporting someone else. Among African Americans in the Hoosier state, Obama leads by an 82% to 13% edge over Clinton, going a long way to boost Obama statewide. African American voters in the Democratic primary comprise about 11% of the electorate.
Obviously, though, if Obama can pull off a win here it’s all but over for Clinton. Sure, she can keep going because it’s all but certain she’ll win West Virginia and Kentucky, but it would be futile.