A Quinnipiac University poll found some disturbing news for Barack Obama. Currently, Obama trails John McCain in Florida and Ohio polls by 4-5 percentage points. By itself, the numbers arenâ€™t too bad. But hereâ€™s the kicker. The same poll showed Hillary Clinton leading John McCain in those two swing states by 7 percentage points.
In fact, polls show between 26 and 36 percent of Clintonâ€™s supporters would switch to McCain should Obama get the nomination. Only 10 to 18 percent of Obama supporters would switch to McCain if the unlikely happens and Clinton somehow winds up with the nomination.
Whatâ€™s this mean? Two things. 1) Although Obama leads McCain in national polls, heâ€™s going to be spending a lot of time shoring up support in the swing states. 2) Thereâ€™s a huge opportunity here for McCain to poach Democratic voters in key states.
As the 2000 election reminded us, the popular vote means nothing. Electoral votes are key. Looks like weâ€™ll be getting a lot of news out of Ohio and Florida again. By now, those two states should be used to it.