Gallup: McCain And Obama Tied
No post-presumptive nominee bump yet.
The five-day rolling average has McCain at 46% and Obama at 45%, exactly the same now for three nights running. From a more microscopic perspective, Wednesday night’s interviewing — the first conducted entirely after it became official on Tuesday that Obama had enough delegates to become the Democratic nominee — also was little changed from Tuesday night’s interviewing, with the two candidates tied at 45% each. This suggests no immediate bounce for Obama from the widespread news coverage of his becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee.
But it looks like Obama gets a bump if he includes Hillary on the ticket…
A follow-up question was inserted into the tracking on Wednesday night, asking voters whom they would support if the Democratic ticket included Barack Obama as president and Hillary Clinton as vice president, with John McCain as the Republican nominee (with no Republican vice presidential candidate specified). The Wednesday night interviewing using this question wording showed the Obama-Clinton ticket with a slight lead over McCain, 50% to 45%.
One last thing, look at how well the newcomer is doing among moderates against McCain’s “maverick” brand…
However, Gallup claims that more people call themselves conservatives than they do liberals, and while that may have been true last year, something tells me party ID may be starting to get a lot closer to parity.