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The Road To 270

4

So now it’s all about electoral college…finally.

The key questions:

  1. Which states do the candidates comfortably have in their corner?
  2. Which ones are battlegrounds?
  3. Which can they take from the other side?

Chuck Todd provides some insight into where the two candidates stand…

Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (153 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: ME, NJ, MN, OR, WA (47 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA, WI (138 votes)
Lean McCain: AR, GA, IN, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND (84 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, KS, KY, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (116 votes)

As Todd points out, when you add up Base and Lean for both candidates, you come to exactly 200 for each. But do note that Obama’s Base is 37 larger than McCain’s. Sure, McCain will probably get a lot of those Leaners, but it’s very unlikely that McCain will get any of Obama’s Leaners.

So as it stands now, the map bodes well for Obama to capture 270 because of the Toss-ups. None of them seem unwinnable if he’s savvy enough to choose a solid, moderate VP and renews his case for national unity.

If you want to play around with scenarios, I suggest visiting 270ToWin.com. Their interactive electoral map couldn’t be any easier to use.

More as it develops…