Gallup: 9% More Identify As Dems Than Republicans
Bad news for McCain…Republican party ID seems to be at an all-time low…
What’s more, Obama leads McCain by 46% to 39% by those who identify themselves as Independents.
When all of these data for June 5-10 are put together, the overall vote pattern for this period among registered voters is a six-point margin for Obama over McCain, 48% to 42%. The margin is in Obama’s favor in part because there are more Democrats than Republicans in the sample, which helps compensate for the fact that Democrats are slightly less loyal to Obama than are Republicans to McCain. Obama’s margin is also based on Obama’s ability to swing independents slightly in his direction.
Hypothetically speaking, if there were no independents in the race, Obama would still win by a five-point margin, 49% to 44% — reflecting the higher percentage of Democratic identifiers in the voting population.
Conclusion? Obama seems to be in a good place going into the fall because even if independent support falls off he has a decent cushion.
Still, anything can happen…