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Poll: McCain Leads By 4 In North Carolina

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McCain – 45%
Obama – 41%

Obama has gained 2 points from the previous poll, while McCain has gained 1, which represents a net +1 gain for Obama.

Here are the numbers from previous months:
2/08 – McCain 46%, Obama 36%
4/08 – McCain 48%, Obama 39%
5/08 – McCain 44%, Obama 39%

So McCain’s lead has dwindled from 10 to 9 to 5 and now to 4. But you can’t ignore the fact that there are still 12% undecided in this poll (2% are for Bob Barr), and those folks could very well swing towards McCain since 41% of them are 41 and older.

However, when you look at the party breakdowns of those who remain undecided, 15% of Dems, 9% of Republicans and 12% of Independents say they haven’t made up their minds yet. So there are more voters who may traditional lean toward Obama because of party loyalty and discontent with current Republican leadership. And if John Edwards hits the campaign trail hard in his home state he may be able to help convince the Dems and Indys that they should vote for change.

Still, North Carolina seems to be a racially divided electorate…

Obama is still struggling to connect with white voters, garnering only 31% of their votes, although that is an improvement over May’s poll which had him at 27% among whites. Obama is receiving 87% of support of African-American voters.

Conclusion? North Carolina is definitely in play, at least as this point.