Obama – 50%
McCain – 39%
Public Policy Polling showed Obama trailing McCain by 8 points (49 to 41) back in March during the Jeremiah Wright controversy, but in roughly 3 months he’s had a nearly 20 point swing?
PPP explains that their party ID in Ohio is broken out as “55% Democratic, 30% Republican, and 15% other.” But in 2006 the party ID only favored Dems slight by 40 to 37, and in 2004 the party ID was gain only slightly Dem with 40 to 35.
So, are their findings valid?
If PPP was the only company that found such a strong Democratic party id average, we would most likely have weighted for party to bring it more in line with those numbers from 2004 and 2006.
We’re not the only one though. SurveyUSA, which doesn’t weight for party, found a party distribution of 52% Democrats and 28% Republicans in its most recent Ohio poll. Since the party breakdown we found was pretty similar to that, we feel confident enough in it not to weight for party.
PPP did call Ohio for Hillary by 9 and she won by 8.65%. So their track record in the state is pretty solid this campaign season.
Still, my gut tells me that this contest is much closer than 11 points.