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ARG: Obama Up 12 In New Hampshire

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These findings are actually quite a bit of surprise given how strong McCain’s brand is in the Granite State, but the key here is that Independents favor Obama by a 15 point spread.

Obama – 51%
McCain – 39%

Here’s how the demos break down…

Party ID of likely voters
Democrats – 31%
Republicans – 31%
Independent – 38%

Candidate preference by party ID
Democrats – Obama +84
Republicans – McCain +64
Independent – Obama +15

Gender: Male (48% of likely voters)
Obama – 48%
McCain – 47%

Gender: Female (52% of likely voters)
Obama – 54%
McCain – 32%

Age: 18 to 49 (45% of likely voters)
Obama – 48%
McCain – 41%

Age: 50 & older (55% of likely voters)
Obama – 53%
McCain – 37%

What’s more, 43% of those polled said they’d never vote for McCain, while only 25% said they’d never vote for Obama? Could this be backlash from McCain’s rightward shift?

More as it develops…