First, Pew finds that voters prefer Obama…
Obama – 48%
McCain – 40%
Not a large gap, but certainly big enough for Obama to claim a real lead. And let’s face it, if Obama wins the popular vote by 8% in the general election, it’s landslide time. Obviously there are 12% undecided out there, but McCain would have to take 10% to Obama’s 2% to tie, and that seems unrealistic at best.
However, the real story is in voter enthusiasm, especially when contrasted with 2004 and 2000.
Enthusiasm About Candidate – 2008
Democrats – 74%
Republicans – 49%
LEAD – Dem +25
Enthusiasm About Candidate – 2004
Republicans – 75%
Democrats – 63%
LEAD – Repub +12
Enthusiasm About Candidate – 2000
Republicans – 73%
Democrats – 67%
LEAD – Repub +6
For the McCain camp those are hard numbers to spin, and I have to wonder what he’ll be able to do about this. Honestly, I think McCain’s problems stem from the same lack of charisma the Dem candidates suffered from in the last two election cycles. He simply can’t get people excited about the McCainâ„¢ brand, and that’s a lot more important than people would like to admit. On the other hand you have one of the most charismatic figures to step on the national scene since, yes, JFK.
Interesting times ahead…
A new USA Today/Gallup poll shows an even bleaker picture for McCain…
In all, 67% of Obama supporters say they’re more excited than usual about voting, compared with 31% of McCain backers. A 54% majority of McCain voters report being less excited than usual.
A 36 point gap?