Okay, so I just posted a poll from Zogby which showed Obama up by 16 in New Mexico. Pretty substantial lead, right?
Well, the page I linked to at Zogby in that pervious post has 5 different polls in it and the title reads, “Zogby Poll: McCain Leads in FL while Obama is Up in Key Western States: No Clear Leaders in NC or VA.”
Do note that last part…”No Clear Leaders in NC or VA.”
So the two “Key Western States” Obama is up in are New Mexico (16 points lead…as mentioned) and Colorado…but he only leads by 2 in Colorado which is well within the +/-3.6% margin of error that Zogby cites.
I’ve noted the headline and the results in this screen capture…
A bit odd, no?
Okay, so what about Virginia and North Carolina? They’re obviously really close, right?
So leading by 5 and 9 in VA and NC is considered “No Clear Leader,” but being up by 2% in Colorado is?
Not only that, the margin of errors in VA and NC are +/-2.8% and +/-2.7% respectively…almost a full 1% below that of Colorado’s.
Folks, any way you slice it, the framing of these numbers doesn’t make any sense. And I’ve read the post a couple times. There’s nothing in it that explains this discrepancy.
Does Zogby not trust his own numbers?
If you can make sense of it, do tell.