Technology with attitude

Gallup: Obama Gains 6 Points Overall In Swing States


First the graphic, which shows that Obama has gained in blue states, purple states and red states…

Honestly, if this keeps up, Obama will win big. There’s just no other way to put it. McCain can’t be down by a 6 point average in swing states and win this election. It simply won’t happen.

And, of note, Gallup implies that their own daily tracking numbers may be skewed…

While Obama has gained slightly in each of these state groupings, he has gained somewhat more in the most competitive states, seeing his lead expand in these by 6 points, as opposed to 3-point gains in the Obama-McCain gap in red and blue states.

Since early June, he has averaged a 16-point lead over McCain in blue states and an 8-point lead in purple states, while trailing McCain by an average of 10 points in red states (McCain trails by only 3 points overall given the greater number of voters in red states).

So there are a greater number of voters in red states, huh? I wonder if Gallup weights their daily totals to reflect electoral vote %s. Probably not. So what we could be seeing in the daily totals is a number that’s skewed more in McCain’s favor. I’m not saying that’s correct, but if they’re saying that McCain is only trailing by 3 points overall b/c of the higher # of voters in red states, but the electoral divide is essentially even…well, Obama could be up by more than is being shown.

More as it develops…