Gallup: Obama Up By 6
An overseas bounce? A Berlin bump?
Whatever it is…this matches the biggest leads Obama has had in the past two months.
Gallup talks about the trends to look for…
Now, on the basis of a strong showing in Thursday night’s Gallup interviewing, Obama is back to a 6-point margin over McCain. On Thursday Obama made his highly-anticipated speech to a crowd estimated to be larger than 200,000 in Berlin, Germany, and it is not implausible that it might have affected enough voters to move his overall advantage in the horse race tracking a few points. The drop off in Obama’s support earlier this week, however, suggests caution in assuming that the trip will have any lasting impact on the structure of the race.
This means that the jury is still out until the tracking results through the weekend and into next week are monitored carefully. To signify a real difference in the support patterns of voters in the U.S., the data would either need to show a sustained 6-point plus lead for Obama over a number of days, or conversely, a sustained pattern by which John McCain moves into the lead (something he has not done since early June) and sustains that lead.
My thoughts? With Rasmussen showing a bump today, and Gallup showing something similar, the Berlin speech had to make an impact, as Obama is looking more and more presidential by the day. Long story short, this overseas tour has been pretty much nothing but good news for the Illinois Senator, and the numbers seem to back that up.