He drops one today, but still retains a healthy lead over McCain.
Obama’s progress was coincident with his highly visible foreign tour, and it is not unreasonable to expect that his lead over McCain may settle back to a margin closer to what Gallup has measured for most of the summer as the impact of the trip fades. At the same time, McCain and his surrogates have engaged in sharp attacks on Obama in their attempt to blunt the impact of his trip, and some of that effort could have an effect on voters.
Since I follow Gallup and Rasmussen daily, what I’ve noticed is that Gallup seems to swing quicker to wider margins. In other words, Rasmussen’s numbers seem to be more stable and represent more realistic opinion shifts.
Still, both polls had Obama bouncing while he was still in Europe, and I can’t help but think this trip helped sway some of those undecided voters who were unsure about his ability to handle national security issues.