Technology with attitude

Rasmussen: Obama Leads By 1, 2

1

With leaners
Obama – 47%
McCain – 46%

Without leaners
Obama – 44%
McCain – 42%

The bounce is gone, and as I mentioned yesterday, I trust Rasmussen’s numbers more because they’ve always seem to be more stable.

Tully was nice enough to point out that it’s most likely due to the fact that Rasmussen polls “likely” voters, and Gallup polls “registered” voters. And to that point…

Remember that a full 25% or more of registered voters NEVER VOTE. Ever. They fill out the registration form at the Driver’s License office and never go to the polls. Some are disinterested, some are illegal immigrants who are afraid to vote, whatever, they don’t vote and so their opinion has no bearing at all on the prediction of future elections.

Additionally, here’s a little demo info…

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men.

Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans.

It’s pretty amazing to see men and women so evenly divided. And if McCain really wanted to make a splash, he’d probably seriously consider a woman to be on his ticket. I know there’s been talk about Sarah Palin, but looks like things are leaning towards Tim Pawlenty, who seems like an absolute snoozer to me. McCain doesn’t need a snoozer, he needs a rockstar.

The 5 day w/leaners:
07/29/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 47%
07/28/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 48%
07/27/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 49%
07/26/2008: McCain – 43%, Obama – 49%
07/25/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 49%

The 5 day w/o leaners:
07/29/2008: McCain – 42%, Obama – 44%
07/28/2008: McCain – 42%, Obama – 45%
07/27/2008: McCain – 41%, Obama – 46%
07/26/2008: McCain – 40%, Obama – 46%
07/25/2008: McCain – 41%, Obama – 46%

The question again today: what will Gallup show?

More tomorrow…