Obama – 49%
McCain – 44%
3rd Party – 2%
Undc’d – 5%

The numbers above represent the “with leaners” numbers. Usually I include both in Rasmussen daily polling, but for the purposes of state polls, I’m going to just feature the “with leaners” up top. However, “without leaners” numbers still show a 5% margin 46/41 in favor of Obama.

Obama is still very close to that 50% mark, and if he can keep that up it’s very likely that the contest could go to him. Reason being is that the people who support a 3rd party candidate will most likely hover right at the 2% mark, and the Undecideds will most likely break evenly between the two candidates. And McCain would need all of the Undecideds to swing his way to even tie it up. So while Obama’s lead has shrunk to 5% from 10% in July, this will still be a tough state for McCain to turn. Tough, but not impossible.

Rasmussen has the details…

Obama has the support of 79% of the state’s Democrats, while 84% of GOP voters back McCain. Among unaffiliated voters, the Democrat has a sizable lead, 46% to 30%, roughly the same as in July. […]

Obama continues to lead McCain among women voters 49% to 37%, although this is six points narrower than in July. For the second month in a row, the two are virtually tied among male voters, with 44% for McCain and 43% for Obama.

Economic issues are the most important concern this campaign season for 43% of Iowa voters, while less than half that number (21%) rate national security as the priority.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) say finding new sources of energy is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans now consume, but 34% think the latter should come first.

Additionally, Pollster’s poll of polls shows that Obama’s support has dropped a bit, but he has been pretty steadily ahead of McCain by 6% for a while…

More next month…

Politics Rasmussen: Obama Up By 5 In Iowa