And so the tables have turned, at least for today. Of note, Obama hasn’t been at 44% for a LONG time. In fact, the last time was before he secured the nomination back in early June. The same goes for McCain, who hasn’t reached 46% since the same time period.
My guess as to why? The Hillary voters have started to jump to McCain because of the Biden announcement. And all it takes is just a few % swing here and there to swing this election. So if this is tight, not picking Hillary could really cost Obama. Of course, it could have cost him anyway with the amount of anti-Hillary sentiment that exists. But we’ll never know for sure if he does lose.
More perspective from Gallup about the lack of a Biden bounce:
An analysis of historical election poll trends by Gallup Poll Managing Editor Jeff Jones shows that recent presidential campaigns have enjoyed a small (though short-lived) bounce from the running mate announcement. This includes a four percentage point bounce for John Kerry in 2004 after selecting John Edwards, a 5-point bounce for Al Gore in 2000 with his announcement of Joe Lieberman, and a 3-point bounce for George W. Bush in 2000 upon choosing Dick Cheney. Bob Dole received an extraordinary 9-point bounce in 1996 after bringing Jack Kemp onto his ticket.
All of these bounces occurred before the respective party’s convention began, and in most cases the candidates received an additional boost in the polls upon completion of the convention. Thus, any increase in Obama’s support in the coming days would seem to be more the result of the star-studded and well publicized Democratic national convention than the apparently lackluster Biden selection.