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Rasmussen: Obama Up By 1, Tied

1

With leaners
McCain – 47%
Obama – 47%

Without leaners
Obama – 45%
McCain – 44%

Obama gained one in each set up numbers today so now he leads by 1 in the “without” leaners numbers, but he’s still not seeing any appreciable bump from the initial Biden announcement, and I think the time has officially passed when he could have expected one.

In fact, that’s exactly what Rasmussen says…

Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s update is the first to reflect the convention period–just over two-thirds of the interviews were completed after Michelle Obama’s speech on Monday night.

Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average–shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain. […]

Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain. Then, of course, it will be time for the Republican Vice Presidential pick and, next week, the GOP convention.

The 5 day w/leaners:
08/28/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 47%
08/27/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 46%
08/26/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 46%
08/25/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 48%
08/24/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 48%

The 5 day w/o leaners:
08/28/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 45%
08/27/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 44%
08/26/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 44%
08/25/2008: McCain – 42%, Obama – 46%
08/24/2008: McCain – 43%, Obama – 46%

More tomorrow…