Independents and Palin.
Reading Justin’s post this morning, it seemed clear that independents were singularly unmoved by Sarah Palin’s speech last night. I was surprised by this result, but facts are facts. Four independent voters were interviewed by the Fair & Balancedâ„¢ Detroit Free Press and the results were unanimous and unambiguous – The Palin speech had no effect on them. In fact, they were negative. From those comments Justin was able to make an intuitive leap to a dramatic and sweeping conclusion. From the title of the post we learned that the speech was a strategic mistake, and in the body he explains to Governor Palin exactly where she went wrong:
“…my guess is that the large majority of independents want to see a lot more out of you than the speech you gave if you have ANY chance of winning their vote. In fact, you may have lost a good portion of them last night.”
Pretty definitive. That is why I was so surprised to learn that when RCP reported on an actual poll of Independents by SurveyUSA it tells a wildly divergent story from those Detroit Free Press Independent voters:
Palin Moves Independents:
24 hours ago, independent voters nationwide were split on whether Palin was an asset or a liability to McCain’s campaign. Today, by a 2:1 margin, independents say Palin is an asset. Overnight, the percentage calling the Alaska governor an asset to the campaign climbed 13 points; the percentage calling her a liability fell 17 points.
The numbers are similar among moderates, who 24 hours ago viewed Palin as a liability by an 11 point margin; today, Palin is seen as an asset by an 18 point margin.
In other poll results, it seems that more independents think Palin is an asset to McCain, than think Biden is an asset to Obama and more independent women voters think Palin is an asset to McCain, than think Biden is an asset to Obama.
Inexplicable. Obviously this poll is an outlier. I don’t know about you, but I’m going with those four Detroit Free Press Independents.