We won’t know the full extent of McCain’s bounce until Monday, but Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight had this to say yesterday…

From what best I can tell (and this is not an exact science) the one-night results from yesterday’s tracking polls showed something like a 1-2 point Obama lead. If — and this is a big if — that is the extent of the GOP bounce, this is a somewhat underwhelming result for them.

Last night and tonight should be among the best individual nights of polling that the Republicans see all year. If the best they can do is close the race to a tie, or an Obama +1 on those nights, they are not going to win the race based on inertia alone.

Gallup and Rasmussen show some tightening today, but McCain is having trouble cracking much higher than 45% in either poll. Meanwhile, Obama hit 51% in the middle of his bounce last week.

And yes, it was widely reported by the media that Palin’s speech was a hit, but is that really how it played across the country?

More as it develops…

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