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Rasmussen: Obama Up By 5

2

Obama – 50%
McCain – 45%

Obama gains one and McCain drops another point as we arrive at debate day.

A few things…

  • Gallup is currently showing a tie. However, Gallup takes a 3-day rolling average of registered voters, while Rasmussen takes a 5-day rolling average of likely voters. And, as I’ve been told, polling likely voters is usually a better indication of what will happen on election day.
  • Obama is back up to his post-convention bounce numbers, with a +6 being his highest at that time. So he’s flirting with is highest margins, while McCain has never cracked +3 lead.
  • These numbers probably reflect the very first look at Palin’s interview with Couric, but certainly not the second day which could prove to be even more disastrous for McCain’s numbers.

In other words, a shift is happening and Rasmussen shares the details…

It’s stunning to note how rapidly the dynamics of the campaign have changed. Two weeks ago, just before the Wall Street financial crunch became visible, McCain was up by three points in the aftermath of his convention. One week ago today, the candidates were even. Now, Obama’s lead is approaching new highs entering the final few weeks of the campaign.

Obama now leads by five among unaffiliated voters. Last week, the unaffiliated voters were leaning in McCain’s direction.

For most of Election 2008, McCain has attracted more support from Democrats than Obama earned from Republicans. That is no longer the case. Each man now attracts 12% of voters from the other political party.

The 5 day:
09/26/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 50%
09/25/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 49%
09/24/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 49%
09/23/2008: McCain – 48%, Obama – 48%
09/22/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 48%

Will the fallout from the Palin interview push these numbers higher if Independent voters start jumping ship from McCain?

More tomorrow…