As a starter, Obama is up by 5 points or more in pretty much every single daily tracking poll. And it’s widely known that electoral projections rely on state polls, which usually trail the daily nationals by about a week. This is why we didn’t see an immediate uptick for McCain in the electoral counts in the days following the convention, even though his national poll numbers were up.
Long story short, Obama’s looking good in all of the electoral models and they don’t even factor in his recent upswing in the daily nationals.
Electoral Projection Averages: Obama 327, McCain 201
To account for the ties, I gave each candidate 22 electoral votes out of the 44 left, even though that may not necessarily correspond with electoral votes available. This is supposed to be more of a gauge than anything.
The thing to take away from all of this is that this election is getting closer to a reality where voter preferences will not change very much and Obama has enough electoral votes to win, even without the swing states.
As mentioned previously, you can bet the McCain camp is seeing these numbers and preparing a barrage of negative ads to drive up Obama’s negatives. The only issue with this is Obama has the debate platform to combat this and help reassure voters he’s not the bogeyman that McCain is trying to make him out to be.
More as it develops…