At some point, the conversation about this election will begin to shift to “what does an Obama route mean”?
The simple mathematics show that if Obama maintains his 6-8 point lead, and picks up key red states (where he is already leading) such as Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri and Colorado, it will be a full on blowout, similar to the one that George H.W. Bush enjoyed over Michael Dukakis in 1988.Â Â In that election, Bush won the popular vote by eight points, which translated into a whopping 426 electoral votes (to the Duke’s 111).
A route of those proportions would certainly mean big gains in the House and Senate for Democrats.Â While voters tend to be smart about ticket splitting and preserving divided government (poll after poll shows that most voters prefer that each party control one branch of government), this is clearly a change election, and there’s no doubt the Democrats will have entrenched majorities.
With that, Barack Obama will have a mandate — and a long honeymoon — to get things done, particularly on the economy and Iraq, the two biggest issues.Â He won’t receive any Congressional roadblocks to enacting his economic plan (whatever that is … I’m still not sure) and summarily pulling the troops out of Iraq (irrespective of how close they are to the finish line).Â It will be his ballgame, and the Republicans in Congress will be in a similar position to the ’93 Congress, where they played loyal opposition to President Clinton.
It’s way too early to begin forecasting how this will play out, but it’s not too early to begin thinking about the impact of an Obama blowout.