4 days ago I looked at the numbers, and at that time the average of the top 4 electoral sites shook out like this:
Electoral Projection Averages 10.08.08: Obama 354, McCain 184
So what could happen in four days?
Take a look…
FiveThirtyEight: Obama 349.4, McCain 188.6
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 343, McCain 184, Ties 11
Real Clear Politics: Obama 353, McCain 185
Pollster: Obama 320, McCain 158, Ties 60
Electoral Projection Averages 10.12.08: Obama 350, McCain 188
McCain gains 4 and Obama loses the same.
As always, I split “Ties” as evenly as I can between the candidates, even though that may not be an accurate representation of how the actual electoral votes would be allocated.
As I stated last time, we’re starting to see Obama hit a electoral ceiling. Because if Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina keep trending his way (which is shown above in the Real Clear Politics map), the only states left are Indiana and West Virginia.
More as it develops…