FiveThirtyEight Puts McCain’s Odds At 5.9%
That’s right. Just a 5.9% chance that McCain will be able to pull this one off.
And what would Obama’s chances be?
Why the shift?
Well, according to FiveThirtyEight’s new numbers, Obama has opened up an even wider electoral lead on McCain…
Still, could this all turn around?
Well, looks like it has only happened once, and the circumstances were MUCH different…
In the latest Gallup tracking poll, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. Mr. McCainâ€™s deficit in that survey has remained seven percentage points or more for most of the last two weeks.
Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.
But let’s remember that Reagan was the “change” candidate in that election. McCain might as well be the incumbent, even though he has been running away from Bush as fast as he can.
No, I think what we’re seeing here isn’t the potential for a massive shift, but something more like the following…