Gallup: Obama Up By 7
Obama gained one today, as the debate seems to have had little to no effect. Still, I beat he gets a tiny bump from this, maybe another point or two. But for right now, I think Obama’s ceiling is 52%.
And here are the likely voter models. Again, the “traditional” method is much closer than their “expanded” numbers.
This three-day rolling average includes one full night of interviewing after Wednesday night’s final presidential debate, and shows little significant change as a result of the debate at this point. Obama has now returned to 50% of the vote among registered voters, while McCain has been stable at 43% of the vote for three consecutive reports.
Gallup’s likely voter scenarios show differing patterns. If turnout in this year’s election follows traditional patterns by which the voting electorate skews towards those who usually vote as well as those who are interested in this year’s election, the race is a close one, with Obama holding on to a two percentage point margin, 49% to 47%. If a much higher than usual proportion of new voters turn out, thus increasing the potential impact of groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities, Obama has a six-point lead, 51% to 45%.