The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza thinks her chances are good.

However, if Cillizza really believes that…he is CRAZY.

Remember folks, we’re talking about winning the Republican nomination, not merely entering the race. Nearly any well know known politician can do that, and obviously Palin is that at this point. Also, no doubt her fundraising prowess will make her competitive at the start…but for the long haul?

Well, let’s look at this through something other than rose colored glasses Cillizza seems to be wearing.

Politically, she is now widely seen as a drag on McCain’s ticket. And with all of her obvious talents at delivering stump speeches, her painful interviews where she flubs answers on very basic questions make her appear not so quick on her feet. And that reminds Republicans of a certain President who isn’t too popular and probably won’t be for the foreseeable future.

And then there’s her record in Alaska…

Her windfall profit, wealth redistribution policies in Alaska alone will easily be picked apart by any fiscal conservative worth his or her salt. And then there’s TrooperGate, which is probably the most public ethics law violation in recent political history. Doesn’t exactly bolster that reformer message. Also, you can forget the Bridge to Nowhere…and instead focus on the Road to Nowhere. You know, the road that cost millions that leads to a spot where a bridge was supposed to be built. Again, cannon fodder for the fiscally responsible set.

On the other hand, she’s attractive and folksy and…well, she has shot a moose before.

So honestly, with all of this stacked against her and most likely no chance of a “reformer” theme being viable for any Republican challenger in 2012, will Republicans really welcome her back into the fold with open arms?

I say no. Not a chance in hell.

To me, Romney is the guy for 2012. Like him or not, he’ll be able to make a compelling “trusted economic experience” case for the country if the economy doesn’t perk up as much as folks had hoped under a President Obama. And we’re seeing the ground laid for the coming “socialist” campaign against Obama and the Democrats right now. Republicans will spend the next four years pounding that message down voters throats until it gets traction. It’s what they’re best at, and they’re not going to change tactics in 4 years time. Maybe if they lose in 2012, but certainly not between now and then.

Plus, Romney will have 4 years to define himself as an outsider pick to an increasingly fiscally conservative base. And hard core conservative Christians will probably go for a resurgent Huckabee anyway, thus killing Palin’s chances in a field where she simply doesn’t fit in anywhere.

Nope, Palin is done. Take it to the bank.

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