Gallup: Obama Up By 10, 10, 5
Obama gains 1 in the registered model and likely expanded model, and maintains his 5 point lead in the traditional likely model.
What’s more, he has hit the 53% mark in the expanded likely model, and there are no signs of McCain even coming close to making a dent in his lead.
Registered Voters: Obama +10
Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama +10
Likely Voters (Traditional Model): Obama +5
Gallup talks about the likelihood of a McCain win given historical precedent…
History offers few examples of a trailing candidate mounting a successful comeback in the last week of the campaign. Gallup Poll presidential election trends since 1952 point to 1980 as the only case in which a candidate (Ronald Reagan) was behind in the Gallup Poll a week before the election, but went on to win the presidency. In 2000, Al Gore overcame a pre-election poll deficit in the final week to win the popular vote — but not the Electoral College.
Campaign and political events occurred in both the 1980 and 2000 races which, arguably, could explain the late breaking shifts. Without such a “you know it when you see it” issue or event emerging in the next few days, a McCain victory would be without precedent.