Obama – 51%
McCain – 47%
McCain gains one to regain the total he had a couple days ago. But this looks like it’s probably the most he can get, as the remaining 2% will go to Barr, Nader, etc.
And to that point…
The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. The Arizona Senator has reached the 47% mark on two of the past three days. Prior to that, he had not reached the 47% level of support in over a month.
Another way of looking at it is that McCain’s support has now stayed at 46% or above for five straight days. Prior to that, McCain had only reached the 46% level four times in a month.
However, while McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground.This is the 36th straight day that Obamaâ€™s support has been between 50% and 52%.
Obama is now viewed favorably by 54% of voters nationwide, McCain by 53%.
So this is probably where it’ll stay barring any last minute shenanigans. Because there really aren’t that any voters left to get.
My prediction for the popular vote? I think it’s going to turn out something like 51.8% to 46.2%. Because all of that early voting is really favoring Obama at this point. And while that spread certainly won’t dictate any sort of “mandate”, it could push Obama up to 350 electoral votes.
The 5 day:
10/31/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 51%
10/30/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 51%
10/29/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 50%
10/28/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 51%
10/27/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 51%