Encouraging movement for McCain today, as the momentary bump from Obama’s infomercial seems to be settling back down.
Still, Obama is above 50% in all three models and even if McCain manages to capture 60% of undecideds, Obama will still get at least 54% of the popular vote if you look at the expanded likely and registered models. In the expanded traditional model, he’d still get 53%.
Registered Voters: Obama +11
Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama +9
Likely Voters (Traditional Model): Obama +8
Gallup on the models…
The traditional likely voter model producing an eight percentage point lead for Obama takes into account voters’ participation in previous presidential elections as well as their interest in and intention to vote in the 2008 election.
An expanded likely voter model uses only voters’ interest and self-professed likelihood to vote in the current election. On this basis, Obama leads by nine points — 52% to 43% — also with 1% supporting some other candidate and 5% undecided. The expanded model assumes that voter turnout may follow different patterns this year than historically, such as with greater participation by new or infrequent voters.
The expanded likely voter results are not much different from those based on all registered voters. Among the entire sample of eligible voters, Obama leads by 11 points, 52% to 41%. Another 1% name a different candidate while 7% are undecided.