An absolutely devastating day for McCain as he loses ground in every poll.
Now Obama is up by double digits in every single model and Gallup is essentially predicting a massive landslide (55% to 44%) when you split the last bit of undecideds.
And let’s face it…even if Obama doesn’t get to 55%, it’s still looking like a cakewalk for the Illinois senator.
Registered Voters: Obama +13
Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama +11
Likely Voters (Traditional Model): Obama +11
Gallup talks final numbers…
Gallup’s final estimate is based on Gallup’s traditional likely voter model, and assumes an estimated turnout of 64% of the voting age population, an increase over 2004. (Gallup estimates voter turnout from the results of key voter turnout questions, using a model that compares how respondents’ answers to these questions have related, historically, to actual turnout.) This year’s higher turnout estimate is fueled by a surge in early voting — 28% of registered voters in the final poll indicated they had already voted — and higher turnout among blacks than in any of the last four presidential elections.
Gallup has been calculating and reporting an expanded likely voter model alongside its traditional model over the past month. In the end, the candidate selection estimates of the two models converged, and both show the same unallocated 53% to 42% margin for Obama.
The gap in voter support for Obama versus McCain is slightly wider (53% to 40%) when the vote preferences of all registered voters are taken into account. The likely voter model typically shows a reduction in the Democratic candidate’s advantage, as has been the case with Obama this year. Nevertheless, Obama has been able to maintain a significant lead over McCain in recent days, ending in the 11-point lead in the final poll. It would take an improbable last minute shift in voter preferences or a huge Republican advantage in Election Day turnout for McCain to improve enough upon his predicted share of the vote in Gallup’s traditional likely voter model to overcome his deficit to Obama.
No more tomorrow… 🙂
That’s right. No more of these Gallup daily tracking polls. I know that will make some of you very happy.