It’s still early yet in Obama presidency, but given that he’s above 50% in many states that didn’t vote go for him this fall…there’s some significance here.
Obama’s approval equals or exceeds 50 percent in all of the states that he won on November 4th, plus Arizona (10 electoral votes), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Missouri (11), South Dakota (3) and Tennessee (11). […]
There are a couple of places, though, where there is a little bit of a suggestion that Obama is overperforming or underperforming. His approval ratings are somewhat slack in the Southwest relative to his election day totals, although it is hard to reach a definitive conclusion since we only have one poll to look at in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. Conversely, there are some signs that Obama is overperforming in the Inner South or what we sometimes call the “Highlands” region — states like Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas. These are places where Obama appeared to suffer somewhat owing to racial animus. I have theorized before that Obama might gain ground in these states as the manifest familiarity of his Presidency displaced the fear of his otherness. It is too early to confirm or refute that hypothesis, but we perhaps shouldn’t completely rule out the possibility that Obama could be competitive in some of these states in 2012.
I still think that 2012 will hinge on the economy. If it gets better, Obama is a lock. If not, the GOP has an opening. But let’s remember that Bush was still reelected in 2004, even with the Iraq War becoming increasingly unpopular.
Also, when you look at the stable of candidates the GOP will field, only Romney seems like a viable choice. Palin is a joke and Huckabee is too religious. And a guy like Pawlenty, while interesting, doesn’t have the charisma or backing.
But what about a guy like Charlie Crist?
More as it develops…