There’s nothing to see here, move along, move along.
Democratic apologists have been telling us that the surprising results in Virginia and New Jersey were not repudiations of the Democrats in Congress, but regional results that really don’t reflect on the wonderful 27% approval rating of the Congress. There is nothing to see here, really.
But the Jedi Mind Trick wears thin with the recent polling in the special election to replace Sen. Kennedy in that bluest of blue states, Massachusetts. Scott Brown, the Republican challenger for the open seat, has vowed to block health care reform if elected, and his poll numbers are surging. The Bay State’s voters are evidently familiar with government health care schemes.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Massachusetts finds Scott Brown (R) leads Martha Coakley (D), 48% to 47%, and is “buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state.”
“Here’s the reality: the Republicans and GOP leaning independents are going to come out and vote for Scott Brown. There’s no doubt about that. But there’s also a much larger pool of potential Democratic voters in the state. If Coakley can get them out, she wins. But this race is well past the stage where Democrats can take it for granted that will happen. It will be fascinating to see what happens the final ten days and we’ll do a second poll on the race next weekend.”
This table of poll results from Real Clear Politics shows a steady erosion in support for Coakley:
Massachusetts Senate – Special Election
|Poll||Date||Sample||Coakley (D)||Brown (R)||Spread|
|PPP (D)||1/7 – 1/9||744 LV||47||48||Brown +1|
|Rasmussen||1/4 – 1/4||500 LV||50||41||Coakley +9|
|Boston Globe||1/2 – 1/6||554 LV||53||36||Coakley +17|
|Suffolk||11/4 – 11/8||600 RV||58||27||Coakley +31|
|Western NE College||10/18 – 10/22||342 LV||58||32||Coakley +26|
|Suffolk||9/12 – 9/15||500 RV||54||24||Coakley +30|
Public Policy Polling points to several reasons for the surprising narrowing in this race, with one key factor for both parties to take into account:
-Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama’s plan with 59% opposed.
Everyone start practicing now. Wave your hand like a Jedi and say “Nothing to see here, move along, move along.”
Cross posted to FrankHagan.com